Exxon's Internal Climate Scientists Accurately Predicted Global Warming in 1977

In the late 1970s, Exxon's own scientists were running computer models that predicted global warming with striking accuracy. The company's internal projections, developed by researchers like James Black, showed that burning fossil fuels would raise atmospheric CO2 levels and warm the planet—conclusions that align remarkably well with modern climate science. Yet for decades afterward, Exxon publicly questioned whether climate change was real at all.

This disconnect between what Exxon knew internally and what it told the public became undeniable after Inside Climate News obtained and reviewed internal company documents, memos, and meeting notes spanning from 1977 through the mid-1980s. The investigation revealed that Exxon had been monitoring climate research closely, funding its own studies, and drawing clear conclusions about the dangers of continued fossil fuel consumption.

At the time, Exxon's acknowledgment of climate risks was hardly fringe thinking. The scientific consensus around human-caused global warming was solidifying. The company simply recognized this reality earlier than most and invested in understanding what it meant for their business. One internal memo stated plainly that if climate projections proved accurate, the implications would be "of great importance to the future of the company."

But something shifted. Through the 1980s and beyond, Exxon's public position began to diverge sharply from its internal scientific findings. The company would later become known for funding climate skepticism, supporting think tanks that questioned warming science, and downplaying the urgency of climate action. Industry documents suggest this wasn't due to new scientific evidence contradicting their earlier work—it was a deliberate strategic choice.